Nearly a week after Election Day, control of the House remains uncertain.
Republicans are favored to win the lower chamber with 20 seats still in play, but Democrats still have a fighting chance in the race to win the necessary 218 seats.
As of Sunday afternoon, The Associated Press has projected Republicans to win 211 seats and Democrats to win 204 seats.
That means of the remaining 20 contests, Republicans need just seven more seats to clinch the majority, while Democrats need to notch 14.
For Democrats to hit that target, they need to win all of the races they currently lead and a few others where Republicans hold a slight edge.
A little more than half of the undecided races are in California, where all active voters are sent mail ballots, creating a more sluggish tabulation process. Arizona, Colorado, Oregon each have two uncalled races, while Alaska, Maine and New York each have one.
Here’s what Democrats would need to do to take the House majority:
Hold the nine seats with steady Democratic leads
Alaska at-large: With just over 80 percent of votes counted in Alaska’s ranked-choice election, Rep. Mary Sattler Peltola (D) has garnered 47 percent of first-place votes. If she doesn’t reach a majority in the first round, officials will drop the lowest candidate and redistribute their supporters’ second-place votes, continuing until one candidate reaches a majority. It’s possible Peltola will make it over the threshold in the first round, but even if not, she is close to clinching the majority in a later round.
California’s 6th: Rep. Ami Bera (D) appears likely to win reelection, but The Associated Press has not yet called the race, given that nearly half of the votes have yet to be reported. But NBC and ABC have both projected Bera as the winner, and he is leading by 12 percentage points among the votes already cast.
California’s 9th: Rep. Josh Harder (D) is running for reelection in this Central Valley district that includes Stockton, although he largely faces new voters following redistricting. Harder currently leads Republican Tom Patti, who sits on the San Joaquin County Board of Supervisors, by 13 percentage points with about half of votes counted.
California’s 21st: Further south in California’s Central Valley, including Fresno, Rep. Jim Costa (D) is running for reelection in a largely redrawn district that voted for Biden by double digits in 2020. With three-quarters of the vote in, Costa leads by 9 points against former FBI Special Agent Michael Maher (R).
California’s 47th: In this district that includes Irvine and other parts of Orange County, Rep. Katie Porter (D), a prominent progressive, holds a 3-point lead against Republican Scott Baugh. But 28 percent of the estimated vote has yet to be reported.
California’s 49th: Rep. Mike Levin (D) holds just a 5-point lead over Republican Brian Maryott in this Southern California district, which includes parts of Orange County and stretches southward close to San Diego. Twenty-nine percent of the estimated vote remains, but Levin has recently expanded his lead, and the Cook Political Report’s Dave Wasserman projected Levin as the winner.
Colorado’s 8th: With nearly every vote counted, Democrat Yadira Caraveo leads Republican Barbara Kirkmeyer by just 0.7 percentage points in the district, which includes portions of the Denver suburbs and stretches northward to more rural areas. Despite the race remaining uncalled, Kirkmeyer conceded the race on Wednesday.
Maine’s 2nd: Moderate Rep. Jared Golden (D) holds a 3-point lead over Republican challenger Bruce Poliquin. Nearly every vote has been tabulated, but Maine uses a ranked-choice voting system. Golden remains at 48.5 percent, slightly below the majority needed to win outright in the first round. Golden’s lead gives him an edge in subsequent rounds once others are eliminated, but the Democrat himself ousted Poliquin in 2018 after trailing in the first round.
Oregon’s 6th: In Salem and portions of Portland’s southwest suburbs, Democrat Andrea Salinas has a narrow 1.8-point lead over Republican Mike Erickson. Nineteen percent of the vote has yet to be reported. Salinas on Wednesday said she was confident she will come out on top once the votes are all counted, while Erickson on Friday said his team remains optimistic.
Win the five of six seats where count is neck-and-neck
Arizona’s 1st: Rep. David Schweikert (R) is fighting to hold on to his seat drawn more favorable to Democrats during redistricting. Democrat Jevin Hodge leads by less than a percentage point with 14 percent of the estimated vote outstanding. The district lies in Maricopa County, including Scottsdale and other parts of the Phoenix area. Counting of mail ballots, expected to be completed by Tuesday, is expected to shift redder as time goes on.
Arizona’s 6th: Republican Juan Ciscomani, a former senior adviser to Arizona’s governor, leads former Arizona state Rep. Kirsten Engel (D) by just 0.45 percent. Thirteen percent of the estimated vote remains in the district, which includes parts of Tucson. The winner will replace retiring Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick (D), whose seat was drawn more favorable to Republicans this year.
California’s 13th: Businessman John Duarte (R) is in a near-tie with moderate California state Rep. Adam Gray (D), with just 0.11 percentage points separating the two candidates. But nearly 49 percent of the estimated vote remains in this Central Valley district that includes Merced.
California’s 22nd: Rep. David Valadao is the only House Republican running this year that impeached former President Trump and did not face a Trump-backed primary challenger. But with just over half of the votes reported, Valadao holds just a 5-point lead over Democrat Rudy Salas, giving Democrats hope the seat still could be in reach. The district includes Bakersfield and parts of the Central Valley.
California’s 41st: Rep. Ken Calvert (R) leads Democrat Will Rollins by 1.5 points as of Sunday in this Riverside County district. But roughly a third of the estimated vote remains outstanding, potentially giving way for Democrats a path to flip the seat. Following redistricting, Calvert’s seat now includes areas like Palm Springs, which is known for its LGBTQ community.
Colorado’s 3rd: Rep. Lauren Boebert (R) leads by a razor-thin margin of just 0.35 percentage points. With nearly all votes counted, the small margin could trigger an automatic recount, thought Wasserman says Boebert will likely win.
The other remaining districts all appear to be heading in Republicans’ direction.
Via The Hill